For many Canadians, condominium apartments represent the most accessible path to homeownership. However, as prices continue to climb, this affordability narrative could soon change. Recent reports have analyzed the annual average growth in median condo prices across Canada’s major metropolitan areas between 2019 and 2024. Leveraging this data, experts have forecasted when we might see average condo prices surpass the $1 million mark—and the results may surprise you.

Within the next decade, nearly 40% of regions across Canada are expected to boast condo prices averaging $1 million or more. Unsurprisingly, the majority of these high-priced markets will be concentrated in Ontario, with major urban centres like Toronto and Vancouver leading the charge. What’s perhaps more unexpected is that Halifax, a traditionally more affordable Atlantic city, is now on track to join the club of high-value markets.

Why this shift? Halifax’s inclusion highlights the changing dynamics of Canada’s real estate market, driven by population growth, limited inventory, and soaring demand. Let’s take a deep dive into these trends, explore the underlying factors, and pinpoint when Canadians might see the $1 million condo as the new norm.

The Data Behind the Projections

The forecasting model relies on a consistent and data-driven approach. Analysts calculated the average year-over-year growth rate in condo prices from 2019 to 2024 using data from the Canadian Real Estate Association. This annual growth rate was then applied as a percentage increase to the most recent prices, year after year, to project future milestones. While the model assumes steady growth, it provides a useful lens for understanding where the market might be headed if current trends persist.

Here’s what the numbers tell us:

Toronto and Vancouver are expected to reach the $1 million average condo price by 2030 and 2031, respectively.

Cities like Victoria, Ottawa, Saint John, and Montreal will take longer, achieving this milestone within 20 years.

Calgary, experiencing rapid growth, is expected to follow suit by 2040.

However, the timeline stretches significantly for other regions. For instance, in Winnipeg and Regina, the $1 million price point isn’t projected to materialize for at least 57 to 61 years.

Clearly, a tale of two markets is emerging in Canada—those skyrocketing now and those with more subdued growth over time.

Halifax: A Rising Star in the East

One of the most compelling stories in Canadian real estate is the meteoric rise of Halifax in the Atlantic region. Historically known for its affordability compared to cities in Ontario or British Columbia, Halifax’s condo market has undergone a seismic shift.

What’s Driving Halifax’s Growth?

Population Boom
Halifax has seen significant population growth fueled by both interprovincial migration and international immigration. Many Canadians, particularly those from high-cost provinces like Ontario and BC, have relocated to Halifax in search of more affordable housing options.

Low Interest Rates
From 2020 to 2021, historically low interest rates encouraged many buyers to enter the market, driving up demand and, consequently, prices.

Limited Inventory
The supply of available housing has struggled to meet this surging demand, further pushing up prices.

By the Numbers: Halifax’s Price Surge

Between 2021 and 2022 alone, the average condo price in Halifax jumped from $348,275 to $424,400—a dramatic increase in just a single year. Even as the market began to stabilize in 2023 and 2024, the average price continued to climb, reaching $472,100 by October 2024. Over the past five years, Halifax’s condo prices have grown by a staggering 68.4%, or an annualized growth rate of 13.68%.

If Halifax continues on this trajectory, it could soon rival Vancouver and Toronto in terms of price growth. While the timeline for Halifax to hit the $1 million mark remains uncertain, its recent performance signals that this milestone might not be as far off as one might think.

The Big Players: Toronto and Vancouver

When discussing skyrocketing condo prices, no conversation is complete without mentioning Toronto and Vancouver, Canada’s real estate powerhouses.

Toronto: A Steady Climb

Over the past five years, Toronto’s condo prices have witnessed substantial growth, rising from $504,758 in 2019 to $671,980 in 2024—a 33% increase despite some market fluctuations. With an average annual growth rate of 6.29%, Toronto’s condo prices are expected to hit $714,247 by 2025 and cross the $1 million threshold by 2031.

Vancouver: The Longtime Leader

Vancouver, already one of Canada’s most expensive real estate markets, has continued its upward trajectory. Between 2019 and 2024, average condo prices rose from $605,950 to $768,780—a 27% increase over five years. The city is projected to maintain an annual growth rate of 4.94%, with prices expected to surpass $1 million by 2030.

Both cities are on track to nearly double their 2019 condo values within the next six years, cementing their reputations as some of the most dynamic and unaffordable markets in the country.

A Tale of Slower Growth: Victoria, Ottawa, and Beyond

While Toronto, Vancouver, and Halifax dominate headlines, other cities like Victoria, Ottawa, and Montreal are also on a steady path toward million-dollar condos, albeit at a slower pace.

Victoria: As a picturesque coastal city with a growing population, Victoria’s condo market is gradually heating up. It’s expected to reach the $1 million mark within 20 years.

Ottawa: The nation’s capital sees steady but less dramatic growth, also forecasting a 20-year timeline to cross the milestone.

Montreal: With its unique charm and cultural draw, Montreal is another city experiencing steady, long-term growth.

Calgary: A City on the Rise

Calgary stands out for its rapid growth and burgeoning potential. While traditionally not as competitive as Toronto or Vancouver, Calgary’s real estate market is heating up due to strong interprovincial migration and an attractive job market. Over the past three years, condo prices have surged from $246,783 in 2021 to $342,110 in 2024—a nearly 39% increase.

What’s Next for Calgary?

From 2019 to 2024, prices grew by an impressive 40%, and post-2024 projections suggest an average annual growth rate of 7.11%. If this pace continues, Calgary’s average condo prices are expected to hit $500,000 by 2030, double their 2024 value by 2035, and eventually reach $1 million by 2040.

For investors and homebuyers alike, Calgary’s trajectory signals substantial market potential and long-term opportunities.

Regional Outliers: Newfoundland, Winnipeg, and Regina

Not all markets are growing at the same pace. For regions like Newfoundland, Winnipeg, and Regina, the $1 million condo remains a distant prospect:

Newfoundland: Projected to reach $1 million in approximately 30 years.

Winnipeg: At an annualized growth rate that lags behind other cities, Winnipeg is forecasted to hit $1 million in 57 years.

Regina: As one of Canada’s most affordable markets, Regina isn’t expected to reach this milestone for 61 years.

These timelines highlight the vast regional disparities in Canada’s real estate market. While some cities are experiencing explosive growth, others remain relatively stable, offering more affordable opportunities for buyers.

Key Takeaways for Buyers and Investors

Understanding these trends is crucial for anyone looking to buy, sell, or invest in Canadian real estate. Here’s what the data suggests:

Urban centres like Toronto, Vancouver, and Halifax are becoming increasingly unaffordable, but they also offer significant investment potential due to their rapid growth.

Calgary is emerging as a key player, blending affordability with strong growth prospects—a city to watch for first-time buyers and investors alike.

Slower-growth markets like Winnipeg and Regina may appeal to those prioritizing affordability over rapid equity gains.

While no prediction is ever guaranteed, analyzing past performance alongside current trends can provide valuable insights into where the market is headed. For investors, understanding these long-term projections can help inform strategic decisions, whether buying into high-growth areas or focusing on slower, steadier markets.

Closing Thoughts

Canada’s condo market is evolving at a breakneck pace, with some cities poised to redefine what “affordable housing” really means. While the prospect of $1 million condos becoming the norm may seem daunting, these projections underscore the importance of staying informed and planning ahead. Whether you’re a homebuyer or an investor, now is the time to evaluate your goals and align them with the trajectory of your local market.

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